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MLB / mlb / live

STL 4 / SFG 5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals58%
SFGSan Francisco Giants42%

at Oracle Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMichael McGreevyProbable
Model pickSTL moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
SFGHome starterLogan WebbProbable
STL58%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SFG42%ML -130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.8 pts

Market has SFG -126 (~54.7%) while model gives STL 58.1% — a ~13-point gap I won't follow. Webb (4.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) at Oracle Park (PF 0.906) is the better side; McGreevy's 1.26 WHIP and 6.23 K/9 is thinner. Model's 9.69 total sits over 2 runs above the 7.5 line despite its own park-factor SHAP pointing down; take the under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betmgm / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Logan WebbSFG starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -130STL / SFG moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total