MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-11 / 31 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
Brandon Sproat MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.9
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 bovada / U -132 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 37%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 86%
O 3.5 72%
O 4.5 54%
O 5.5 37%
O 6.5 24%
O 7.5 14%
O 8.5 7%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / home
Projected K 6.0
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -124 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 83%
O 4.5 70%
O 5.5 54%
O 6.5 39%
O 7.5 26%
O 8.5 16%
O 9.5 9%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / away
Projected K 4.3
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -150 betmgm / U +126 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 79%
O 3.5 61%
O 4.5 43%
O 5.5 27%
O 6.5 15%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Joe Ryan MIN starter / home
Projected K 7.7
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -106 betrivers / U +105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99%
O 2.5 98%
O 3.5 94%
O 4.5 87%
O 5.5 77%
O 6.5 64%
O 7.5 50%
O 8.5 37%
O 9.5 26%
O 10.5 17%
O 11.5 11%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Gage Jump OAK starter / away
Projected K 4.8
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +104 fanduel / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 52%
O 5.5 35%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Bryan Hudson CHW starter / home
Projected K 2.1
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 61%
O 2.5 35%
O 3.5 16%
O 4.5 7%
O 5.5 2%
O 6.5 1%
O 7.5 0%
O 8.5 0%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Cam Schlittler NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.3
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -132 fanduel / U +128 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 89%
O 3.5 76%
O 4.5 61%
O 5.5 44%
O 6.5 29%
O 7.5 18%
O 8.5 10%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Miles Mikolas WSN starter / home
Projected K 4.1
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 betmgm / U -115 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 76%
O 3.5 58%
O 4.5 39%
O 5.5 23%
O 6.5 13%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kyle Freeland COL starter / away
Projected K 3.8
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +112 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88%
O 2.5 72%
O 3.5 52%
O 4.5 33%
O 5.5 19%
O 6.5 10%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Tyler Mahle SFG starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -143 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 82%
O 3.5 66%
O 4.5 48%
O 5.5 31%
O 6.5 18%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Shane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.4
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 fanduel / U +127 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 80%
O 3.5 62%
O 4.5 44%
O 5.5 28%
O 6.5 16%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Bubba Chandler PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.0
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +114 draftkings / U -140 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 76%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 38%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Logan Gilbert SEA starter / away
Projected K 5.8
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +130 bovada / U -165 betmgm 4 books at this line
Model over 6.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 92%
O 3.5 81%
O 4.5 67%
O 5.5 51%
O 6.5 36%
O 7.5 23%
O 8.5 14%
O 9.5 8%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Griffin Jax TBR starter / home
Projected K 5.3
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 fanatics / U +108 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 89%
O 3.5 76%
O 4.5 60%
O 5.5 43%
O 6.5 28%
O 7.5 17%
O 8.5 10%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Freddy Peralta NYM starter / home
Projected K 5.0
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -125 fanatics / U +104 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 86%
O 3.5 72%
O 4.5 55%
O 5.5 38%
O 6.5 24%
O 7.5 14%
O 8.5 8%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 betmgm / U +100 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 55%
O 4.5 36%
O 5.5 21%
O 6.5 11%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Eury Pérez MIA starter / home
Projected K 5.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -120 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 31%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 62%
O 5.5 46%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 19%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -132 betrivers / U +114 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 87%
O 4.5 76%
O 5.5 62%
O 6.5 46%
O 7.5 33%
O 8.5 21%
O 9.5 13%
O 10.5 8%
O 11.5 4%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Casey Mize DET starter / home
Projected K 5.7
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 bovada / U -133 betonlineag 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 91%
O 3.5 81%
O 4.5 66%
O 5.5 50%
O 6.5 35%
O 7.5 23%
O 8.5 13%
O 9.5 7%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / away
Projected K 4.7
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -109 betrivers / U -106 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 84%
O 3.5 69%
O 4.5 51%
O 5.5 34%
O 6.5 21%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.2
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +114 betrivers / U -125 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 78%
O 3.5 59%
O 4.5 40%
O 5.5 25%
O 6.5 14%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Noah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 5.1
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -142 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 87%
O 3.5 74%
O 4.5 57%
O 5.5 40%
O 6.5 26%
O 7.5 15%
O 8.5 8%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kyle Bradish BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.4
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +112 fanduel / U -136 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 62%
O 5.5 45%
O 6.5 31%
O 7.5 19%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Javier Assad CHC starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -137 draftkings / U +112 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Nick Lodolo CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.8
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -132 betrivers / U +122 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 70%
O 4.5 52%
O 5.5 35%
O 6.5 22%
O 7.5 12%
O 8.5 7%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Reynaldo López ATL starter / away
Projected K 3.6
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 bovada / U -110 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87%
O 2.5 70%
O 3.5 49%
O 4.5 30%
O 5.5 17%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 4%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 betmgm / U -102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 67%
O 4.5 49%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Trey Yesavage TOR starter / away
Projected K 5.2
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -162 betrivers / U +136 fanduel 3 books at this line
Model over 4.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 88%
O 3.5 75%
O 4.5 58%
O 5.5 41%
O 6.5 27%
O 7.5 16%
O 8.5 9%
O 9.5 5%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Walker Buehler SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.3
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 fanatics / U +112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 80%
O 3.5 62%
O 4.5 43%
O 5.5 27%
O 6.5 16%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Brandon Pfaadt ARI starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -103 betonlineag / U -113 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.7
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -145 fanatics / U +119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 50%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 91%
O 3.5 81%
O 4.5 66%
O 5.5 50%
O 6.5 35%
O 7.5 22%
O 8.5 13%
O 9.5 7%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.