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WSN 4 / SDP 5
WSNWashington Nationals39%
SDPSan Diego Padres61%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterRiley CornelioConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
SDPHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
WSN39%ML +155
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SDP61%ML -190

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model (61.2%) and market (62.6%) agree on San Diego; Mize's 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 113.7 IP is a clear comparison over Cornelio's 5.96 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 22.7 IP. On the total, the model's 9.38 sits well above the 8.0 line despite Petco's 0.962 park factor and a Padres offense at 3.6 RPG; that gap looks like a structural miss, so under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Riley CornelioWSN starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%
O 2.560%
O 3.538%
O 4.521%
O 5.510%
O 6.55%
O 7.52%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K3.7
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 fanatics / U +100 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.571%
O 3.551%
O 4.532%
O 5.518%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -190WSN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total