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scheduled
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerProbable
MIL47%ML -129
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
PIT53%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.9 pts

Model likes PIT 52.7% but market has MIL -125 (55.6% implied). MIL is 59-34 vs PIT 47-47; record gap supports market view. Drohan's 2.97 ERA in 63.7 IP is legit vs Chandler's 4.82. PNC Park favors runs (PF 1.055); model total 9.51 vs market 9.0 is reasonable. Lean MIL side, slight over on total.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.4
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 fanduel / U +127 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.0
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 draftkings / U -140 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.576%
O 3.556%
O 4.538%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-129 / +110MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -113 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line21 total