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ATL 0 / PHI 1
ATLAtlanta Braves39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
ATL39%ML +156
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -188

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts

Model (61.1%) and market (60.2%) essentially agree on PHI, so there is no pricing comparison to exploit. The pick rests on Luzardo's 3.02 ERA and 11.09 K/9 over Holmes' 3.62/7.11, which offsets ATL's better record and .789 OPS versus PHI's weak 3.9 RPG. Citizens Bank Park's 1.148 factor pushes toward runs, but two modest offenses and Luzardo's strikeout profile support a small under lean at 8.0.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total7.8
Market total8.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +109 draftkings / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.548%over
O 4.529%over
O 5.516%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K7.7Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +122 fanduel / U -146 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.586%over
O 5.576%over
O 6.563%over
O 7.549%over
O 8.536%over
O 9.525%over
O 10.516%over
O 11.510%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+156 / -188ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total