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BOS 6 / NYM 2
BOSBoston Red Sox50%
NYMNew York Mets50%

at Citi Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
NYMHome starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
BOS50%ML +122
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
NYM50%ML -145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.7 pts

Model projects 9.18 runs vs market 7.5 — a 1.68 run gap. Gray's 2.61 ERA and McLean's 3.73 in pitcher-neutral Citi Field (PF 1.03) don't support 9+ runs. Model is overweight on short-term offensive metrics. Market has BOS +121; I lean BOS slight value given Gray's form and model's total miss.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betrivers / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Nolan McLeanNYM starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -117 draftkings / U +100 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+122 / -145BOS / NYM moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total