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CLE 5 / MIN 6
CLECleveland Guardians50%
MINMinnesota Twins50%

at Target Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickMIN moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
MINHome starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
CLE50%ML +108
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIN50%ML -128

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.8 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.0%), market leans MIN at 53.7%. Neither pitcher is sharp: Prielipp 4.96 ERA in 61.7 IP, Cecconi 4.44 ERA in 95.3 IP. Target Field runs slightly above neutral (PF 1.061). Model's 9.11 total vs market 8.0 is noteworthy—model may be correct that mediocre arms in hitter's park trend higher than 8. Lean MIN and over but no conviction.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -115 betmgm / U +126 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Connor PrielippMIN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -150 betmgm / U +127 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+108 / -128CLE / MIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total