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NYM 7 / MIA 5
NYMNew York Mets50%
MIAMiami Marlins50%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline50%Model 20260907_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
NYM50%ML -103
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
MIA50%ML -115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.5 pts

Market (-121, 53.7%) is slightly higher on Miami than the model's 50.2%, and the pitching matchup supports the home side: Alcantara at 3.54 ERA / 1.19 WHIP over 195.7 IP against Manaea's 4.70 ERA / 1.36 WHIP. Total of 8.0 looks low with both offenses at 5.1 and 5.3 RPG in a neutral park (PF 1.01), so I side with the model's 9.20 directionally without full conviction.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -159 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K4.7
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betrivers / U -120 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-103 / -115NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total