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CIN 2 / LAD 3
CINCincinnati Reds42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterNick LodoloConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
LADHome starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
CIN42%ML +250
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
LAD58%ML -312

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.2 pts

Model's 57.6% on LAD is well below the market's 73.8% implied, and the market looks right: Skubal (2.86 ERA, 10.81 K/9, 0.98 WHIP) against Lodolo (5.08 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) plus an 87-57 vs 69-75 record gap. CIN's .629 OPS sits oddly with the listed 6.0 RPG, another reason to distrust the model's total of 9.43 versus the 8.0 line. Slight under lean on Skubal's strikeout profile; no price value at -309.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.6
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 fanduel / U +130 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.574%
O 3.555%
O 4.536%
O 5.521%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K8.2
Best price at 8.58.5O +118 draftkings / U -120 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 8.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%
O 2.598%
O 3.595%
O 4.590%
O 5.581%
O 6.569%
O 7.557%
O 8.543%
O 9.532%
O 10.522%
O 11.514%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+250 / -312CIN / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total