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CHC 0 / CIN 4
CHCChicago Cubs47%
CINCincinnati Reds53%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterHunter GreeneConfirmed
CHC47%ML -117
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CIN53%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.3 pts

Greene's 21.6 ERA across 3.3 IP (10 starts listed but minimal innings) is incomplete data masquerading as disaster—model likely filling from team averages. CHC's 6.2 RPG vs CIN's 3.4 RPG is a 2.8-run gap; market at -110 aligns with model's comparison but offense_defense_mismatch suggests caution. Imanaga's 4.28 ERA/1.1 WHIP is solid. Pass on total given Greene data uncertainty.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -107 betrivers / U -106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%under
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Hunter GreeneCIN starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 bovada / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%over
O 11.54%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-117 / -102CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -102 / U -119
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total