MLB / mlb / live
PHI 1 / CIN 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
CINCincinnati Reds43%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterBrady SingerConfirmed
PHI57%ML -172
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CIN43%ML +144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K7.1Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +113 draftkings / U -120 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.541%over
O 8.529%over
O 9.519%over
O 10.512%over
O 11.57%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.567%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-172 / +144PHI / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total