MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / CHW 0BOSBoston Red Sox40%
CHWChicago White Sox60%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterJake BennettConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
BOS40%ML -108
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CHW60%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -125 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -128 fanduel / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -110BOS / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total