MLB / mlb / live
BOS 3 / BAL 1BOSBoston Red Sox50%
BALBaltimore Orioles50%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
BALHome starterKyle BradishConfirmed
BOS50%ML -132
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
BAL50%ML +110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.6
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K6.5Actual 12 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -145 fanatics / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.54%over
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.
Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betmgm / U +125 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +110BOS / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -1
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total