Snell's 1.90 ERA and 11.6 K/9 over 42.7 IP is the cleanest comparison here, and the market's 58.6% on LAD looks closer to right than the model's 54.4%. The ATL starter is a TBD fallback (4.91 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) that almost certainly misrepresents the actual arm, so treat the 8.79 total as unreliable; 1.8 runs over a 7.0 line with Snell going is a structural miss. Lean under.