MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / ATL 6PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
ATLAtlanta Braves52%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaProbable
Model pickATL moneyline52%Model 20260928_auto
ATLHome starterRay KerrProbable
PHI48%ML -105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
ATL52%ML -111
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.3 pts
Both starters are TBD fallbacks, so neither side's pitching profile is trustworthy; market is a near pick'em (-102/-106) and model's 51.9% adds nothing. Slight nod to ATL at home with 4.0 RPG and .789 OPS versus PHI's 3.2 RPG and .570 OPS. Model's 8.67 total looks high against a 7.5 line in a 0.915 park with those run rates, so under.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -111PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total