MLB / mlb / live
BOS 2 / NYY 9BOSBoston Red Sox46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny GrayProbable
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260928_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedProbable
BOS46%ML +118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYY54%ML -139
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts
Model (54.4%) and market (55.8%) essentially agree on NYY, so no comparison to claim. Fried (2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs Gray (2.72 ERA) in a 0.933 park argues for a tight, low-scoring game; the model's 7.85 total sits 1.35 above the 6.5 line and looks structurally high. BOS listed 2.1 RPG against a .736 OPS is internally inconsistent, another reason to keep the side light.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total7.6
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -139BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total