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NYM 7 / WSN 1
NYMNew York Mets47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterJonah TongConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
WSNHome starterConnelly EarlyConfirmed
NYM47%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Model has WSN at 52.6% vs market 45.1% — a modest gap. Washington's .820 OPS and 4.8 RPG outpace NYM's .736/4.4, and Tong has just 25.7 IP with a 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Early's 3.44 ERA is steadier. Late-September with both teams eliminated adds lineup noise, so lean only. Tong's short workload points to early bullpen use and an over.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.3
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jonah TongNYM starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 bovada / U -108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Connelly EarlyWSN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -166 fanduel2 books at this line
Model over 3.569%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109NYM / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total