MLB / mlb / live
NYM 4 / WSN 6NYMNew York Mets47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
WSNHome starterDJ HerzConfirmed
NYM47%ML -114
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.3
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -109 draftkings / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DJ HerzWSN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betmgm / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-114 / -105NYM / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total