MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / WSN 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
WSNWashington Nationals43%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260914_auto
WSNHome starterJared SimpsonConfirmed
PHI57%ML -194
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
WSN43%ML +161
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +104 fanduel / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Jared SimpsonWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 0 K / Under 1.5
Best price at 1.51.5O -135 draftkings / U +106 draftkings1 book at this line
Model over 1.585%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-194 / +161PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line23 total