WSN carries the clear offensive comparison (.820 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs NYM's .736 and 3.9) plus home field, so the model's 52.6% looks conservative. But the Mets starter is TBD with fallback stats and there is no market odds to anchor against, so this stays a lean. No total view without a market line; the ace-matchup profile (3.17/3.42 ERAs) would argue under if one existed.