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MLB / mlb / live

ATL 9 / WSN 0
ATLAtlanta Braves50%
WSNWashington Nationals50%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
WSNHome starterBrad LordConfirmed
ATL50%ML -139
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
WSN50%ML +118

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -145 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Brad LordWSN starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 6 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.537%over
O 4.521%over
O 5.510%over
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-139 / +118ATL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total