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ATL 5 / WSN 9
ATLAtlanta Braves50%
WSNWashington Nationals50%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterAJ Smith-ShawverConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
WSNHome starterJake IrvinConfirmed
ATL50%ML -148
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
WSN50%ML +124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.4 pts

Model has ATL at 50.5% versus market's ~62% implied, a large gap I'd resolve toward the market given ATL's 82-56 record. Smith-Shawver's 13.7 IP over 10 starts makes his 5.93 ERA nearly meaningless, so no strong side at -172. Market total of 10.0 sits well above the model's 8.76 in a 0.959 park; slight under lean.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
AJ Smith-ShawverATL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -149 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Jake IrvinWSN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -130 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-148 / +124ATL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-127)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -118 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total