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MIA 3 / WSN 6
MIAMiami Marlins49%
WSNWashington Nationals51%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline51%Model 20260831_auto
WSNHome starterWill DionConfirmed
MIA49%ML -114
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
WSN51%ML -103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Essentially a pick'em: model has WSN at 50.6%, market implies 48.3%, so no meaningful comparison either way. WSN's 4.4 RPG and .820 OPS comparison Miami's 3.5 RPG and .774 OPS, and Dion's 10.75 K/9 over 34.3 IP is encouraging though a limited sample. Nationals Park at 0.959 plus Miami's weak scoring nudges me under 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Will DionWSN starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -101 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%under
O 2.565%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-114 / -103MIA / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total