MLB / mlb / live
CIN 3 / WSN 5CINCincinnati Reds43%
WSNWashington Nationals57%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase PettyConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
WSNHome starterCade CavalliConfirmed
CIN43%ML +104
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
WSN57%ML -122
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase PettyCIN starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 fanduel / U -143 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+104 / -122CIN / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total