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CIN 2 / WSN 8
CINCincinnati Reds46%
WSNWashington Nationals54%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline54%Model 20260803_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
CIN46%ML -136
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
WSN54%ML +115

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts

Model's 53.6% on WSN sits ~10 points above market's 43.4%, and the pitching comparison points the other way: Burns at 2.35 ERA, 10.39 K/9, 1.10 WHIP over 118.7 IP versus Alvarez at 3.94 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP. WSN's 3.4 runs per game is the weaker offense, so the offense_defense_mismatch flag reads as a red flag on the model. Under 8.5 with Burns and a 0.959 park factor.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-136 / +115CIN / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total