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NYY 5 / WSN 3
NYYNew York Yankees44%
WSNWashington Nationals56%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterCade CavalliConfirmed
NYY44%ML +100
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
WSN56%ML -119

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.5 pts

Model has WSN at 56%, market implies 48.5% — modest 7.5pp gap. Both pitchers are competent mid-rotation arms (Cavalli 3.88 ERA, Warren 4.15 ERA) with adequate sample (10 GS each). WSN offense is better (6.1 RPG vs 4.2), but NYY has stronger record. No structural comparison visible. Lean under 9.5 given park factor 0.959 and model total 9.17.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +117 betonlineag / U -130 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -119NYY / WSN moneyline
Run line context-0.3 (+1)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total