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NYY 4 / WSN 2
NYYNew York Yankees47%
WSNWashington Nationals53%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterPJ PoulinConfirmed
NYY47%ML -198
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
WSN53%ML +164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.8 pts

Model's coin-flip call (50.0% WSN) misses the pitcher quality gap. Schlittler: 2.01 ERA, 10.53 K/9 over 112 IP is legitimate dominance. Mikolas: 5.78 ERA, 4.98 K/9 is batting practice. Market has NYY at 64% implied, model sees a toss-up. Pinnacle knows better. Total: market 9.0, model 9.4. Schlittler in a neutral park argues under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -141 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

PJ PoulinWSN starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.535%over
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-198 / +164NYY / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -107 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total