MLB / mlb / live
HOU 6 / WSN 3HOUHouston Astros44%
WSNWashington Nationals56%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterTatsuya ImaiConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
WSNHome starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
HOU44%ML +100
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
WSN56%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U -102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -103 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118HOU / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total