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PHI 10 / WSN 5
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
WSNWashington Nationals52%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
WSNHome starterCade CavalliConfirmed
PHI48%ML -181
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability38%Selected moneyline pick
WSN52%ML +150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.4 pts

Model has WSN at 51.7% but market implies PHI 62.7%—a 14.5pp gap favoring PHI. Sánchez's 1.80 ERA over 105 IP is elite and sustainable with 10.37 K/9. Cavalli at 4.07 ERA faces a weak PHI offense (0.57 OPS, 2.3 RPG). Market correctly prices PHI's pitching comparison. Total 8.17 vs 8.5 line suggests lean under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +114 fanduel / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -136 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-181 / +150PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total