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PHI 14 / WSN 9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
WSNWashington Nationals42%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
WSNHome starterPJ PoulinConfirmed
PHI58%ML -188
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
WSN42%ML +155

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.2 pts

Model and market align on PHI (58% vs Pinnacle 62%). Luzardo's 10.19 K/9 over 85.7 IP is a legitimate comparison over Littell's 5.45 ERA. WSN's .82 OPS suggests they can score, and model total 8.77 sits just above market 8.5. PHI offense (.57 OPS) is weak but Littell's peripherals support runs.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 13 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -150 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 13 strikeouts.

PJ PoulinWSN starter / home
Projected K1.6Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.549%under
O 2.523%under
O 3.59%under
O 4.53%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-188 / +155PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total