sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

PHI 1 / WSN 4
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
WSNWashington Nationals52%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterTim MayzaConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline52%Model 20260622_auto
WSNHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
PHI48%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
WSN52%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.5 pts

PHI pitcher is TBD/fallback (10 GS, 1.80 ERA looks like team substitute data). Model favors PHI 58% vs market WSN 53% — reverse positions. Griffin's 3.32 ERA in 84 IP is solid; WSN offense (.820 OPS) substantially better than PHI (.570). Ace matchup flag with fallback data is contradictory; lean WSN but low confidence given opponent pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.5
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%over
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinWSN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +108 fanduel / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -125PHI / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total