MLB / mlb / live
KCR 6 / WSN 2KCRKansas City Royals38%
WSNWashington Nationals62%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterLuinder AvilaConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline62%Model 20260616_auto
WSNHome starterZack LittellConfirmed
KCR38%ML +110
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
WSN62%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%over
O 3.541%over
O 4.524%over
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Zack LittellWSN starter / home
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.563%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132KCR / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total