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SEA 1 / WSN 10
SEASeattle Mariners42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%

at Nationals Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterPJ PoulinConfirmed
SEA42%ML -134
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
WSN58%ML +112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Model favors WSN 53.5% vs market 44.8% (8.7pp gap). Hancock's 2.74 ERA, 8.68 K/9 over 75.7 IP is legit; Mikolas 5.90 ERA is exploitable. Market correctly prices SEA comparison. Model total 8.91 vs market 10.0 suggests under, park factor 0.959 supports pitcher-friendly conditions.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -152 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

PJ PoulinWSN starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.562%under
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-134 / +112SEA / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total