MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / WSN 8SEASeattle Mariners45%
WSNWashington Nationals55%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLuis Castillo
Model pickWSN moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterCade Cavalli
SEA45%ML -101
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
WSN55%ML -116
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%over
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 fanduel / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-101 / -116SEA / WSN moneyline
Run line context-0.3 (0)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total