MLB / mlb / live
SEA 10 / WSN 2SEASeattle Mariners53%
WSNWashington Nationals47%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryce Miller
Model pickSEA moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterZack Littell
SEA53%ML -148
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
WSN47%ML +123
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -126 draftkings / U +108 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Zack LittellWSN starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +128 draftkings / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-148 / +123SEA / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total