MLB / mlb / live
MIA 7 / WSN 3MIAMiami Marlins55%
WSNWashington Nationals45%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterCade Cavalli
MIA55%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
WSN45%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.4 pts
Model picks MIA at 55.2% while market implies WSN 56.6%—a 11.4pp disagreement. Alcantara's 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, not signal. Cavalli's 3.2 IP across 10 starts screams injured/opener role. Model likely overfit to Alcantara's tiny hot streak and misweighted Cavalli's structural uncertainty. Defer to market on side; lean under given thin pitcher data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -140MIA / WSN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+147)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total