MLB / mlb / live
SDP 4 / WSN 9SDPSan Diego Padres52%
WSNWashington Nationals48%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickSDP moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterFoster Griffin
SDP52%ML -128
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
WSN48%ML +109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts
Model predicts 9.32 runs vs market 7.5—a massive 1.82 gap triggering total_far_from_market. SDP's 2.6 RPG (56 games) is extreme suppression; King's 0.0 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise. Griffin lacks season ERA/IP data despite 10 starts, suggesting data issue. Market total at 7.5 is more credible than model's inflated 9.32. Lean SDP and hard under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-128 / +109SDP / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -106
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total