MLB / mlb / live
NYM 16 / WSN 7NYMNew York Mets37%
WSNWashington Nationals63%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian Scott
Model pickWSN moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterJake Irvin
NYM37%ML -142
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
WSN63%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time18.7 pts
Model has WSN at 62.9% but market implies only 44.2% — an 18.7pp gap flags structural misread. Christian Scott's null stats suggest data_quality='full' may be misleading; if he's a recent callup the model may be using fallback team data incorrectly. Market likely knows something about Scott's effectiveness. NYM lean at plus-money, total under the 10.0 market line vs model's 8.86.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-142 / +120NYM / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -118 / U -107
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total