MLB / mlb / live
NYM 16 / WSN 7NYMNew York Mets37%
WSNWashington Nationals63%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian Scott
Model pickWSN moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterJake Irvin
NYM37%ML -142
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
WSN63%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap19.3 pts
Model has WSN at 62.9% but market implies only 44.2% — an 18.7pp gap flags structural misread. Christian Scott's null stats suggest data_quality='full' may be misleading; if he's a recent callup the model may be using fallback team data incorrectly. Market likely knows something about Scott's effectiveness. NYM lean at plus-money, total under the 10.0 market line vs model's 8.86.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-142 / +120NYM / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -118 / U -107
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total