MLB / mlb / live
BAL 3 / WSN 13BALBaltimore Orioles42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterChris Bassitt
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterCade Cavalli
BAL42%ML -109
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
WSN58%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.3 pts
Bassitt missing all season stats (ERA, IP, K/9, WHIP null) makes this unpickable for side. Model at 58% vs market 51% is negligible anyway. WSN offense strong at 5.9 RPG/.820 OPS vs BAL's weak 4.0 RPG/.662 OPS, but without reliable pitcher data confidence is unwarranted. Market total 10.0 vs model 8.84 suggests under lean, especially with park factor 0.959.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -110BAL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -113 / U -106
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total