MLB / mlb / live
MIL 6 / WSN 1MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterJake Irvin
MIL42%ML -160
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
WSN58%ML +135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap16.7 pts
Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies MIL at 60%. MIL's .972 OPS and 5.7 RPG offense clearly superior to WSN's .820/.5.4. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 and 1.8 ERA in 50 IP is elite; Irvin's 12.6 K/9 also strong. Model picking worse offense against better pitcher. Market side is MIL; total under 8.0 given pitcher quality.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-160 / +135MIL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total