MLB / mlb / live
MIL 6 / WSN 1MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterJake Irvin
MIL42%ML -160
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
WSN58%ML +135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.4 pts
Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies MIL at 60%. MIL's .972 OPS and 5.7 RPG offense clearly superior to WSN's .820/.5.4. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 and 1.8 ERA in 50 IP is elite; Irvin's 12.6 K/9 also strong. Model picking worse offense against better pitcher. Market side is MIL; total under 8.0 given pitcher quality.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-160 / +135MIL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-128)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total