MLB / mlb / live
ATL 7 / WSN 2ATLAtlanta Braves42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterJR Ritchie
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterCade Cavalli
ATL42%ML -137
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
WSN58%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.5 pts
Model picks WSN at 58% but market implies ATL 55%. ATL has better record (17-8 vs 11-14) and higher RPG (6.6 vs 5.3). JR Ritchie's away pitcher data is fallback quality—2.25 ERA in 4.0 IP is noise, not signal. Model's structural miss on team quality suggests lean to ATL. Total at 8.91 vs market 9.5 argues mild under.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-137 / +115ATL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total