MLB / mlb / live
MIL 4 / WSN 1MILMilwaukee Brewers42%
WSNWashington Nationals58%
at Nationals Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterKyle Harrison
Model pickWSN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
WSNHome starterFoster Griffin
MIL42%ML -132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
WSN58%ML +112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.8 pts
Model has WSN at 58% but market implies MIL 54%. MIL's .972 OPS and 6.0 RPG dwarf WSN's .82 OPS and 5.1 RPG. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes total prediction unreliable—model says 9.06, market 7.5. Lean MIL on offense gap but pass on total without pitcher metrics.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-132 / +112MIL / WSN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -109 / U -114
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total