MLB / mlb / live
CIN 1 / TOR 5CINCincinnati Reds47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterBrandon WilliamsonConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
TORHome starterMax ScherzerConfirmed
CIN47%ML +140
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TOR53%ML -169
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.4
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon WilliamsonCIN starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +132 betonlineag / U -172 betonlineag3 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Max ScherzerTOR starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -131 draftkings / U +115 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 4.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.567%over
O 3.546%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.515%over
O 6.57%over
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -169CIN / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total