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DET 10 / TOR 1
DETDetroit Tigers39%
TORToronto Blue Jays61%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterDrew AndersonConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
TORHome starterBraydon FisherConfirmed
DET39%ML +124
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
TOR61%ML -147

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.2 pts

Model's 61.4% on TOR sits modestly above the market's 56.2%, a defensible gap rather than an outlier. Fisher (3.22 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has the comparison over Anderson (3.80, 1.31), and Rogers Centre plays neutral at 0.997. DET's listed 5.9 RPG against a .582 OPS is internally inconsistent, so I discount the offensive input and stay at standard. Two starters with 8.9 and 9.7 K/9 nudge me just under the 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Drew AndersonDET starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 bovada / U +114 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%over
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Braydon FisherTOR starter / home
Projected K2.6Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%under
O 2.548%under
O 3.527%under
O 4.513%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+124 / -147DET / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total