MLB / mlb / live
BAL 1 / TOR 8BALBaltimore Orioles40%
TORToronto Blue Jays60%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline60%Model 20260907_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
BAL40%ML +126
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
TOR60%ML -150
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K7.7Actual 9 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +128 betonlineag / U -148 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.587%over
O 5.576%over
O 6.564%over
O 7.550%over
O 8.537%over
O 9.526%under
O 10.517%under
O 11.511%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+126 / -150BAL / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+149)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U 0
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total