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DET 6 / TOR 5
DETDetroit Tigers47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
TORHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
DET47%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TOR53%ML -144

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.9 pts

Model 53.3% and market 54.1% agree on Toronto; no comparison either way. Melton's 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP outclass Soriano's 3.48/1.28, which offsets the home comparison. DET's listed .582 OPS against 5.6 RPG is internally inconsistent, so I discount the offense inputs. Model's 8.69 total sits well above the 7.5 line with both starters under 3.50 ERA in a neutral park; under is the better side.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Troy MeltonDET starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betonlineag / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -144DET / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total