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SEA 3 / TOR 4
SEASeattle Mariners46%
TORToronto Blue Jays54%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterKade AndersonConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
TORHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
SEA46%ML -105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
TOR54%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.0 pts

Model and market align exactly at 53.8% on Toronto, so no comparison on the side; Soriano's 3.43 ERA over 144.1 IP is the more reliable arm versus Anderson's single 5.2-inning start. The 9.06 total sits 1.5+ runs above the 7.5 line, driven by thin rookie data and Seattle's weak 3.8 RPG. Lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kade AndersonSEA starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -125 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -142 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.542%over
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -112SEA / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total