sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYY 4 / TOR 3
NYYNew York Yankees47%
TORToronto Blue Jays53%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
NYY47%ML +107
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
TOR53%ML -127

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.1 pts

Model (52.9%) and market (53.1%) agree on Toronto, so no comparison dispute on the side. Cease's 2.40 ERA and 13.09 K/9 against a Yankees offense averaging 2.8 runs per game with a .692 OPS is the cleanest angle here. The model's 8.76-run total sits 1.76 above the 7.0 line and looks like a structural miss given the pitching matchup; I lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 fanduel / U +125 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Dylan CeaseTOR starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 10 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -103 betrivers / U -101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.588%over
O 6.580%over
O 7.569%over
O 8.557%over
O 9.544%over
O 10.533%under
O 11.524%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+107 / -127NYY / TOR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total