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BOS 4 / TOR 6
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
TORToronto Blue Jays42%

at Rogers Centre

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterJosé SorianoConfirmed
BOS58%ML -133
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
TOR42%ML +112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Model (58.2% BOS) and market (-122, ~53.9% implied) agree on Boston, so the side is defensible. The 8.95 model total is nearly 2 runs above the 7.0 line and looks like a structural miss: Soriano (3.24 ERA, 9.16 K/9) vs Suarez (3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) in a neutral park (PF 0.997) argues under. Team RPG/OPS figures conflict, so I discount the offense inputs.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.3
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 fanatics / U -135 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

José SorianoTOR starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 betmgm / U -156 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-133 / +112BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.3O -110 / U -120
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total