MLB / mlb / live
BOS 1 / TOR 2BOSBoston Red Sox55%
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
at Rogers Centre
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
TORHome starterJameson TaillonConfirmed
BOS55%ML -163
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
TOR45%ML +139
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 fanduel / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jameson TaillonTOR starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-163 / +139BOS / TOR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total